India’s grand old political dispensation, Congress, has once again resurrected from political deathbed to poise itself confidently against the aggressive right-wing party, BJP. The verdict of assembly elections in 5 states inserted a life into the ruling party, fortunes of which were so far marred by regular electoral defeats in different states. The results have also put breaks on main opposition party’s successive electoral victories since last 3 years. Nonetheless, the verdict requires further insights so that the feeling of relief does not escalate into triumphant mood in the Congress to downplay BJP’s potential strength.
Five years ago when these states went to polls, Congress governments in all the states were convincingly defeated at the hands of BJP, except in Delhi. This time the natural expectation should have been reversal of the positions in these four states. However, BJP was confident enough to retain the three states and wrest Delhi from the Congress. On the other hand, Congress was on the defensive fearing defeat in all the states because of three factors: inflation, terrorism and its own streak of losses in past 3 years. In this context, assembly election results set in the mood of jubilations within Congress and send BJP on the back foot. For the first time, in last couple of years, Congresspersons sensed possibility of retaining the prime residence on the Race Course Road in Delhi after next general elections. In contrast, BJP is terrorized with possibility of spending another 5 years on the opposition benches in the Parliament. It will now pray for the election results in Jammu and Kashmir where it is expected to outperform Congress in the Hindu dominated region.
While Congress has to introspect on its failure to trigger off anti-incumbency mood in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, its hat trick in Delhi deserves special mention. Chief Minister Sheila Dixit’s development oriented leadership received thumping endorsement from people who defied BJP’s high-pitched campaign on terrorism. In fact, BJP became so obsessed with the terror issue that it lost an opportunity in Delhi to corner ruling establishment on the issue of price-rise. Timely announcement of salary hikes for the government servants, according to recommendations of the 6th pay commission, also poured cold water on the burning issue of inflation to some extent. BJP’s inability to mobilize urban voters on the issue of terrorism vindicates people’s perception about its own efforts to tackle terrorism when it was in the power. The party has clearly lost the moral edge it once enjoyed among the middle classes on the issue of terrorism. At a deeper level, there is scope to believe that people have begun to understand the role Hindu communalism plays in preparing grounds for Islamic terrorism in this country. Delhi’s mandate is clearly for development and rejection of rightwing plank of secular parties being soft on terror.
BJP’s expectations in Delhi were not unrealistic as it had ruined the Congress in Municipal elections just year ago. The Congress revival is, thus, remarkable and unprecedented. The anger generated over ceiling of shops had been successfully countered by Dixit government through regularization of many unauthorized colonies and initiating infrastructural development in those areas. While ceiling issue affected the business community, which has been BJP’s traditional vote bank, Congress consolidated its own voters by regularizing the slums and colonies. Free hand given to Sheila Dixit in candidate selection and unity among top leaders engineered by direct intervention of Rahul Gandhi ensured vote consolidation for the Congress party. The established fact is ‘although Gandhi dynasty is the necessary condition for its electoral success, it’s not the sufficient condition.’ Its better for Congress to accept this reality sooner than later. The party needs influential state level leader with clean image to emerge successful in the ballot game.
It’s evident from the Rajasthan results as well. The trick of fielding Ashok Gehlot for electoral contest made positive impact for Congress in the state. However, it was more a vote against the BJP government, particularly its high-handed approach in addressing the farmers’ issues. People’s rage against the government was so high that they have voted for multiple parties who opposed Vasundhara Raje’s policies and functioning. The BSP, CPM, SP, newly formed Loktantrik Samajwadi Party and large number of rebel candidates from Congress entered the assembly with all of them improving over their earlier performance in the state. They must have also spoiled Congress chances at some other places, thus making it difficult to garner majority on its own. The results expose volatile political scenario in the state and pose a challenge for Congress in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. The BSP and the CPM have emerged as serious contender for at least 6 parliamentary seats in the state. This will upset Congress plan to win majority seats in the state to overcome the deficit it is certain to have in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh.
The failure in Madhya Pradesh has generated long term crisis for Congress party as far as its stakes in the state politics is concerned. Its been viewed as party of leaders but without followers in the state. The high stature leadership of Congress, e.g. Jyotirdatya Sindiya, Digvijay Singh, Kamal Nath and Suresh Pachouri, failed dismally in generating confidence among the party workers and people in general. Three successive defeats, two in the assembly polls and one in the last general elections, in the state has put a question mark on possibility of revitalization of Congress party in the state. The same applies to state of Chattisgarh. Projection of Ajit Jogi, albeit informally, as chief contender for the coveted post injected certain level of energy in the party machinery. However, Jogi’s corrupt image has been no match for BJP’s Raman Singh. Ironically, Ajit Jogi evoked corruption-mania during his campaign speeches leading a scathing attack on his oppositional counterpart. It proved counterproductive. On the other hand, Raman Singh’s main electoral plank has been development. These two central Indian states count for 42 parliamentary seats, while Rajasthan and Delhi make up 33 parliamentary seats. The message is clear that BJP is down but not out as far as the Grand Finale in April-May is concerned.
There are two main issues on which BJP has to ponder upon; one, how much the candidature of L.K. Advani would help it in generating confidence among the people; and two, utility of Hindutva ideology. The core constituency of BJP, the middle class, does not feel enthused with the old war horses. It is one of the major inferences one can draw from BJP’s defeat under A.B. Vajpayee in last general election and V. K. Malhotra’s failure to unseat Congress in the Delhi assembly elections. The false sense of feel-good, security and better governance can not be built around tired and tested faces. By now, it is also clear that BJP can win elections either on development plank or as a result of lackluster performance of the Congress government and its organization. The hardline campaigns adhering to Hindutva can not fetch enough votes, although it may help the BJP in keeping its folk together. It shows the stage of stagnation the Hindutva movement has reached. The BJP has to take a call either to abandon the Hindutva-based ideology and sever all ties with RSS or succumb to the latter’s pressure to adopt harder postures. The assembly election results provide it an opportunity to firm up its approach.
