Here I wish to join the debate with Vidya Subrahmaniam on what will be the political look of next Lok Sabha. She rightly points out in The Hindu dated 31st December 2008,
(http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/31/stories/2008123154600800.htm,)
the next Lok Sabha will be, most probably, the hung house. I want to precisely state my estimation of the potentiality of three contesting formations to win the seats in different states. Of course, the projection is subject to change with the ever evolving political situtaion in the country. I invite comments by all of you as I am reserving the explanations of the seats projection right.
(http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/31/stories/2008123154600800.htm,)
the next Lok Sabha will be, most probably, the hung house. I want to precisely state my estimation of the potentiality of three contesting formations to win the seats in different states. Of course, the projection is subject to change with the ever evolving political situtaion in the country. I invite comments by all of you as I am reserving the explanations of the seats projection right.
| STATES | UPA | NDA | TF + BSP |
| | 20 | 20 | 00 |
| Jharkhand | 07 | 07 | 00 |
| | 04 | 10 | 00 |
| Tamilnadu | 19 | 00 | 20 |
| Andhra** | 10 | 10 | 22 |
| Haryana | 05 | 06 | 00 |
| | 06 | 01 | 00 |
| Himachal | 01 | 03 | 00 |
| J&K | 03 | 01 | 00 |
| | 07 | 06 | 00 |
| Uttarakhand | 01 | 04 | 00 |
| UP | 25 | 06 | 50 |
| Rajasthan | 17 | 07 | 01 |
| Gujrat | 16 | 10 | 00 |
| MP | 09 | 20 | 01 |
| Chattisgarh | 05 | 06 | 00 |
| Orissa | 15 | 06 | 00 |
| | 24 | 24 | 00 |
| Karnataka | 04 | 20 | 04 |
| Kerala | 12 | 00 | 08 |
| | 12 | 00 | 30 |
| Other States | 10 | 06 | 02 |
| Total 543 | 232 | 173 | 138 |
| | | | |
** Assumed that Chiranjivi will enter into pre-poll or post-poll alliance with BJP
2 comments:
first of all thank u for providing a plot form for debate.
at present I don't want to go in detail nation wide, I will confine to AP only.
Assumptions were some extent correct regarding gaining of seats. 32 seats will be shared out of 42 by non congress parties i.e telugu desam & left parties, chiranjeevi's praja rajyam party and telangana rashtra samithi and BJP. possibilities are very less to gain seats for BJP except one or none. I don't think chiranjeevi will make tie up with BJP.one crucial point is one of chiranjeevi's offficial spokes person is from BJP activist - parakala prabhakar where as from the beginning politically and personally advisor dr.mitra born and brought from communist party. chiranjeevi facing symbol problem, he may not get single symble in forth coming elections. ...rama
even if 38 seats go for a six, 100 looks very sunny for any TF...
assuming of course, that they stay somewhat together.
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