An Overview of Lok Sabha Elections 2009

How important is the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections for the largest democracy in the world? Following are my important submissions to place the electoral contest in a perspective. First, future of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Hindutva-vadi Bharatiya Janata Party is at stakes. Secondly, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the party of dalits and most backward classes, is posing as serious contender of power through post-ballot alliance(s). Thirdly, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) and its left-wing allies are determined to deny any opportunity to the NDA and Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to garner majority in next Lok Sabha. Fourth, the above 3 factors create enormous difficulties in the path of UPA to stage a come back. Fifth, an altogether different and novel synthesis can emerge after the election process.

BJP’s bid to enlarge the NDA has met with limited success so far as it could only allure the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana, Rastriya Lok Dal of Ajit Singh in UP and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in Assam. At the same time, it has shown all the signs of succumbing to the pressures of its trusted and tested allies like Akali Dal and Shiv Sena. On the other hand, there is no improvement in its relations with Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, whereas Biju Janata Dal in Orissa was offended by disregard shown to the authority of Chief Minister Navin Patnaik by BJP-affiliated organizations like Bajrang Dal and Vishwa Hindu Parishad. A window has come into existence wherein the core components of NDA can leave the BJP in despair if the alliance fails to improve upon its 2004 election result tally.

BJP’s own campaign is eccentrically turning into one point agenda of making L.K Advani the Prime Minister of India. Mr. Advani, the self-proclaimed custodian of nationalism, is so much obsessed with the British political practices that he will happily declare his shadow cabinet if gets an opportunity. However, infighting within BJP, coalition compulsions and obvious need of post-election hunt of new partners must have refrained him from the move. While projection of leader of opposition as Prime Ministerial candidate and announcing the shadow cabinet by the main opposition party has been the standard British parliamentary practice, of late, Indian political system is exercising the option of building alliances and running the governments on commonly agreed policy frameworks. Even when BJP was full of steam and A.B. Vajpayee was at the peak of popularity, it was NDA’s National Agenda of Governance that ensured smooth sailing of its government from 1999 to 2004. Today, Team Advani seems to forget the unavoidable principle of coalition reality.

BJP’s hopes, still, are resting on the substantial assumption that it will outsmart Congress in some of the important states, while few of the non-UPA, non-left parties will extend helping hand to it after the elections. BJP expects to retain the lead in states of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. On the other hand, BJP led NDA aims to make exceptional gains in Karnataka, Gujrat, Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana and probably Maharashtra. However, the possibility of damage in Rajasthan, Orissa and Punjab is haunting its poll managers. Its direction to all the senior leaders, with exception to Arun Jaitely and Vankaiya Naidu, to contest election can boost morale of grass-root workers with the potential of altering equations in various states in its favour. If things work according to BJP’s poll planners, the NDA could be in a position to attract some of the regional players like Jaylalitha and Chandrababu Naidu to strengthen its claim for government formation.

In comparison to BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Ms. Mayawati, another aspirant of the coveted post, is playing the hard ball. Proving her jealous critics wrong, Mayawati today appears as lady in no hurry. Her adamant refusal to lead the formation and power claim of Third Front has confused her silent admirers even though her strident supporters remain unperturbed by it. BSP’s stint of successful electoral strategies and political tactics in this decade under the leadership of Mayawati makes it difficult to question wisdom of her decisions. Her judgment is driven by many considerations.

· First, instead of gambling for Prime Ministerial post, she has chosen to strengthen the BSP across the country. Her bid to lead the government at the centre will depend on post electoral scenario, particularly sustainability of the government and calculation of political gains of leading the central government.

· Second, next Lok Sabha may not complete its tenure due to hung mandate. Therefore, it is wise to prepare for the 2009 elections by keeping an eye on prospective mid-term polls in 2011 or 2012.

· Third, annihilating the threat of Samajwadi Party in the U.P. is more important for BSP than leading any short term government at the centre.

BSP’s aggressive approach to make a dent into S.P.’s Muslim support base, if proves successful, can spell a doom on Mulayam-Amar duo. The Dalit-Brahmin-Muslim equation is undefeatable in U.P that can gift BSP more than 60 seats in the state. However, it also contains the seeds of backlash as the Brahmin voters of BSP may not accept emergence of Muslim leadership in the party, even at the lower level.

Away from the limelight, the CPM is resolutely striving for setting up non-Congress, non-BJP government in the next Lok Sabha. Its strategy is based on three points:

· Isolating BJP by denying it an opportunity to tie up with more regional parties;

· Ensuring dignified presence of Left Parties in the next Lok Sabha, even if it fails short of maintaining its recent strength;

· Keeping the dialogue open with all the non-BJP, non-Congress parties.

Credit for NDA’s failure to gain more allies goes to left leadership who have persuaded three important regional players dissociating from BJP; namely AIADMK, TDP and JD (S). In the post-election scenario, if UPA fails to gain majority on its own, Left has the potential to rally around the diverse players like JD (U) and BJD to NCP and INLD to keep the BJP and Congress away from the power. Without making such an attempt, the Left stands to lose out its electoral allies to the NDA due to local factors in their respective states.

Where can we locate Congress and its strategy amidst the rising political activities in the country? Odds against the Congress are increasing even if they are not so apparent today. Few of its allies, particularly the NCP and the SP want to gain maximum from the alliance while wish to restrict Congress tally in the respective areas of their influences. In the last Lok Sabha election, Congress gained from the support of the Left votes in various pockets in the country, except in the 3 states where they were at loggerheads. However, it can not expect the repeat of the backing in the coming elections. Some of its allies, e.g. the SP, DMK, RJD and JMM, may end up with the poor showing in the elections whereas the Congress itself may not able to retain seats in states like Assam, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as a result of local anti-incumbency factors. Prospective successes in Orissa and Rajasthan, in this context, will be undoubtedly insufficient to reach near to the majority mark for the Congress-led UPA. Similarly, many of the senior Congress leaders, led by none other than the Prime Minister, are uncomfortable in contesting the elections. Otherwise, Gulam Nabi Azad could have entered the Parliament by contesting elections instead of getting elected on Rajya Sabha. Others like Digvijay Singh, Oscar Fernandes, Ahmad Patel, Arjun Singh, Virappa Moily, Shivraj Patil etc. would also prefer the upper house than contesting for the Lok Sabha. In spite of this, Congress today has leadership of caliber in some of the states; like Pranab Mukherjee, A.K. Anthony, P. Chidambaram, Shankar Singh Vaghela, Kamal Nath and even Ajit Jogi, who can win the election along with spearheading electoral campaign in their home states. If Congress utilizes the talent available within the party, it can make a positive difference.

The election result can throw up different possibilities; for example

1. The UPA forming government

2. The NDA forming government with the support from TDP and AIADMK

3. The NDA forming government with BSP

4. BSP forming government with outside support from NDA

5. BSP forming government with outside support from Left and NDA

6. BSP-TDP-AIADMK-JD(S) forming government with outside support from Left and NDA

7. BSP-TDP-AIADMK-JD(S) forming government with outside support from Left and UPA

8. Most of the regional parties coming together to form the government with outside support from Left and the Congress

9. Most of the regional parties coming together to form the government with outside support from Left and the BJP

10. Any other unimaginable situation.

The uncertainty of Indian politics is best summed up by the NCP spokesperson D.P. Tripathi as he said, in reply to a question whether Sharad Pawar is its Prime Ministerial candidate, “Politics is pregnant with all the possibilities. Only time will decide what it delivers at the last moment.”