(It was written on the eve of election results. Due to technical difficulty, I am posting it two days after the election outcome.)
With the last ballot on 13th May in 86 constituencies that went to poll in the fifth phase of the general elections for the 15th Lok Sabha, the two month long political mega-event has reached its penultimate stage. It becomes imperative to look into political phenomena as it unfolded during campaigning, people who hogged limelight and perceptions about the entire exercise. Once election results are out, these matters will be discussed through the prism of outcome, risking the objectivity.
Momentum of development plank, which Congress claimed to have generated after the last round of Assembly elections, did not sustain for long as the ruling party preferred to engage principal opposition on the issue of weak and strong Prime Minister. The Congress troika of Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi-Rahul Gandhi launched counter-attack on L. K. Advani over his communal politics and erstwhile NDA’s failed approach to tackle terrorism. Congress cleverly killed two birds in one stone as its offensive made the BJP’s main attack on UPA government ineffective while the real issues of development, livelihood and security never surfaced in the debate between country’s two major political parties. For the first time, Indian voters witnessed the political avatar of incumbent Prime Minister as he was fielded by the Congress strategist to attack the right and the left alike. Congress also made it clear that it would not replace Dr. Manmohan Singh as Prime Ministerial candidate. Why should it spring up another leader in the rank which can risk eventual take over of the party by its first family’s generation next? Meantime, Dr. Singh did a favor to Indian democracy by casting his vote in Assam where he is enrolled as voter. Even though he acknowledged his inability to cast vote in the Assam assembly elections two years back, no one remembers whether he ever voted for the 14th Lok Sabha in 2004.
BJP’s desperation for issues to corner the ruling establishment was evident from a fact that in the mid of the campaign it focused on question of bringing back the black money stocked in Swiss Bank by some influential Indians. The issue was initially raised by left parties, which has also been mentioned in CPI-M’s manifesto. Left parties immediately pointed out BJP’s double standard on the issue when it showed how erstwhile NDA government opened up new routes to sneak away black currency in foreign banks. Realizing the appeal of the cause, Congress played safe by pledging to take steps to recover smuggled money. Political parties’ posturing over the issue resulted in emergence of consensus on the need to bring illegally transported money back in the country. Civil society’s pressure and Left’s concerted efforts on this issue, in deed, can help in achieving concrete results once new government takes the charge. While Congress attempted to maintain distance from charges of shielding corrupt people; CBI’s decision to let off Quatrorchi, an accused in the Bofors case, put the party in the dock. Impact of it on the electorate is, however, questionable given the oldness of the case.
Stripped of concrete issues, BJP ultimately championed the case of Varun Gandhi, who vitiated the electioneering with hate speeches against Muslims. The right-wing party banked upon the possibility of communal polarization to boost its prospects in parts of Uttar Pradesh, if not in the entire country. Nationwide condemnation of Varun Gandhi’s vitriolic attack against Muslim community proved the point that merely belonging to Gandhi family would not usher upon you the leadership status; rather, it should be firmly supplemented by respect for all religions and people as well as sobriety in behavior. In sharp contrast, Priyanka Gandhi scored a political point in dignified and graceful manner when she advised her cousin to read and understand Gita. She also silenced Narendra Modi over his criticism that Congress has grown old, hence burdensome on the country. Priyanka’s brief but smart innings during the campaign once again led to speculation of her becoming full time active in politics. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has posed himself to fully control the Congress affairs under guidance from her mother. Compared to last general elections, when he was confined to campaigning in his own constituency; this time the scion of Gandhi dynasty moved throughout the country addressing about 110 public meetings. His acceptability within party, rather the latter’s reliance on him, is beyond doubt. His ability to convert popularity and acceptability into votes for Congress will be tested when the EVMs will speak about the mood of the electorate. The challenge before Rahul Gandhi is to improve Congress tally significantly from the time when late Narsimha Rao resigned from Party President’s post, leaving behind demoralized organization with 135 Lok Sabha members. The mother-son duo has successfully enthused the grand old party since 1997 onwards; however, the quantum jump in its electoral strength remains a day dream.
In the entire election campaigning, BJP lacked the stewardship; thus impressing upon observers, the tallness of A. B. Vajpayee amongst saffron leaders. His successor completely lacked charm and liveliness, the attributes that successfully worked for the former Prime Minister to convert the crowd into valuable votes. BJP attempted to repeat history by creating an aura of decisiveness around Mr. Advani, while contradicting the same by projecting him as liberal in comparison to Narendra Modi. Ironically, BJP’s gigantic exercise to portray Advani as great leader destined to lift India’s fortunes resulted into increased acceptability of Narendra Modi within BJP’s fold. Gujrat Chief Minister also made most of the opportunity in his state, although his riot-stinted past refused to get off his back elsewhere. Outside Gujrat, it was the less charismatic ground level leaders who sustained the momentum for BJP. B. S. Yediurappa in Karnataka, Raman Singh in Chattisgarh, Shivraj Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh, Gopinath Munde in Maharashtra and such leaders in few other states would eventually pull the BJP tally close to the 2004 mark. Dominance of state politics is coming to the rescue of the saffron party, which has failed to set an appealing agenda at the national level. Thus, the saffron party will remain in the reckoning in the future despite its sulking image among the political pundits. This impression of declining force gains currency as a result of total ineffectiveness of BJP’s core agenda before the people. Its allies too are sailing with it due to state level advantages and would act as check on it in case it forms the government at the centre.
The overall posturing by the political parties during electioneering shows tilt towards rhetoric of Left to the Centre policies. While, Congress leadership harped upon its pro-poor projects like NREGA and accused the BJP-led NDA of being pro-rich, the later publicly admitted its folly of pitching the ‘India Shining’ campaign in 2004 general elections. BSP leader Ms. Mayawati also brought into focus the economic disparities in the country and blamed it for Congress rule since independence. She proudly claimed that her party does not run on the money received from rich industrialists but on the basis of donations collected by party workers throughout the country. She also promised to ensure reservation for economically deprived within the upper castes. BSP is making a robust effort countrywide to make Mayawati next Prime Minister on the plank of Dalit Ki Beti. The left parties as usual reiterated its commitment for pro-worker, pro-farmer economic policies while its allies in some of the states banked upon populist measures like cheap rice, free TV sets and cash transfer schemes. If words of the leaders from all political parties are taken seriously, the next government, no matter of which combination, should not make an attempt for further liberalization of country’s economy. The Left parties cobbled together alliances with regional players in few important states and pitted for emergence of strong Third Front in post-electoral scenario. The initial sarcasm about formation of Third Front soon converted into serious attacks on such possibilities by both the Congress and the BJP. Emergence of such possibility also created waves in UPA and NDA as the smaller parties looked for an opportunity to break free from their national partners.
Surprisingly, the volcanic developments in Pakistan found little mention and rabidly anti-Islamabad parties like BJP-Shiv Sena did not try to capitalize on the eminent danger to India from the potential resurgence of Taliban in the neighborhood. Is it a sign of Indian polity coming to an age vis-à-vis dealing with Pakistan and responding to threats emanating from it? Or is it an expose of the cluelessness of Indian political parties over unprecedented developments across the western border? On the other hand, the left campaign was aptly focused on its opposition to strategic ties with the United States, including the nuclear deal, wherein it tried to put the UPA government in the dock. The Congress, however, opted for silence over the issue. It did not champion the reasons and causes for entering into nuclear deal except Dr. Manmohan Singh’s reply to the Left in couple of meetings. Plight of Tamils in Sri Lanka has been the central issue in Tamil Nadu, where there were no contrasting opinions on it. Each of the political formations accused the other of shading false tears and promised to make efforts to ease the situation in northern Sri Lanka.
Apart from the agendas and issues that the parties tried to project at the national level, performance of respective state governments remained the focal point of campaigning in most of the states. It was obvious for the states of A.P. and Orissa, where assembly elections were held simultaneously. However, several other Chief Ministers, for example Nitish Kumar in Bihar, V. S. Achyutanandan in Kerala, Yediurappa in Karnataka and Bhoopinder Singh Hooda in Haryana also took the election as referendum on their respective government’s performance. In few states, the local issues and new leaders too dominated the campaign to the extent of influencing voters’ decision. Prominent among them are Raj Thackrey’s anti-north Indian stand, demands for separate Telangana and Gorakhaland, cine-star Chiranjivee’s political launching in A.P. are some of the prominent local matters emerged in the electioneering this season. Election results will reveal which of these factors dominate the mindset of Indian voters. The results can also throw up surprises and new trends as they have done for more than once in Indian politics.
With the last ballot on 13th May in 86 constituencies that went to poll in the fifth phase of the general elections for the 15th Lok Sabha, the two month long political mega-event has reached its penultimate stage. It becomes imperative to look into political phenomena as it unfolded during campaigning, people who hogged limelight and perceptions about the entire exercise. Once election results are out, these matters will be discussed through the prism of outcome, risking the objectivity.
Momentum of development plank, which Congress claimed to have generated after the last round of Assembly elections, did not sustain for long as the ruling party preferred to engage principal opposition on the issue of weak and strong Prime Minister. The Congress troika of Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi-Rahul Gandhi launched counter-attack on L. K. Advani over his communal politics and erstwhile NDA’s failed approach to tackle terrorism. Congress cleverly killed two birds in one stone as its offensive made the BJP’s main attack on UPA government ineffective while the real issues of development, livelihood and security never surfaced in the debate between country’s two major political parties. For the first time, Indian voters witnessed the political avatar of incumbent Prime Minister as he was fielded by the Congress strategist to attack the right and the left alike. Congress also made it clear that it would not replace Dr. Manmohan Singh as Prime Ministerial candidate. Why should it spring up another leader in the rank which can risk eventual take over of the party by its first family’s generation next? Meantime, Dr. Singh did a favor to Indian democracy by casting his vote in Assam where he is enrolled as voter. Even though he acknowledged his inability to cast vote in the Assam assembly elections two years back, no one remembers whether he ever voted for the 14th Lok Sabha in 2004.
BJP’s desperation for issues to corner the ruling establishment was evident from a fact that in the mid of the campaign it focused on question of bringing back the black money stocked in Swiss Bank by some influential Indians. The issue was initially raised by left parties, which has also been mentioned in CPI-M’s manifesto. Left parties immediately pointed out BJP’s double standard on the issue when it showed how erstwhile NDA government opened up new routes to sneak away black currency in foreign banks. Realizing the appeal of the cause, Congress played safe by pledging to take steps to recover smuggled money. Political parties’ posturing over the issue resulted in emergence of consensus on the need to bring illegally transported money back in the country. Civil society’s pressure and Left’s concerted efforts on this issue, in deed, can help in achieving concrete results once new government takes the charge. While Congress attempted to maintain distance from charges of shielding corrupt people; CBI’s decision to let off Quatrorchi, an accused in the Bofors case, put the party in the dock. Impact of it on the electorate is, however, questionable given the oldness of the case.
Stripped of concrete issues, BJP ultimately championed the case of Varun Gandhi, who vitiated the electioneering with hate speeches against Muslims. The right-wing party banked upon the possibility of communal polarization to boost its prospects in parts of Uttar Pradesh, if not in the entire country. Nationwide condemnation of Varun Gandhi’s vitriolic attack against Muslim community proved the point that merely belonging to Gandhi family would not usher upon you the leadership status; rather, it should be firmly supplemented by respect for all religions and people as well as sobriety in behavior. In sharp contrast, Priyanka Gandhi scored a political point in dignified and graceful manner when she advised her cousin to read and understand Gita. She also silenced Narendra Modi over his criticism that Congress has grown old, hence burdensome on the country. Priyanka’s brief but smart innings during the campaign once again led to speculation of her becoming full time active in politics. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has posed himself to fully control the Congress affairs under guidance from her mother. Compared to last general elections, when he was confined to campaigning in his own constituency; this time the scion of Gandhi dynasty moved throughout the country addressing about 110 public meetings. His acceptability within party, rather the latter’s reliance on him, is beyond doubt. His ability to convert popularity and acceptability into votes for Congress will be tested when the EVMs will speak about the mood of the electorate. The challenge before Rahul Gandhi is to improve Congress tally significantly from the time when late Narsimha Rao resigned from Party President’s post, leaving behind demoralized organization with 135 Lok Sabha members. The mother-son duo has successfully enthused the grand old party since 1997 onwards; however, the quantum jump in its electoral strength remains a day dream.
In the entire election campaigning, BJP lacked the stewardship; thus impressing upon observers, the tallness of A. B. Vajpayee amongst saffron leaders. His successor completely lacked charm and liveliness, the attributes that successfully worked for the former Prime Minister to convert the crowd into valuable votes. BJP attempted to repeat history by creating an aura of decisiveness around Mr. Advani, while contradicting the same by projecting him as liberal in comparison to Narendra Modi. Ironically, BJP’s gigantic exercise to portray Advani as great leader destined to lift India’s fortunes resulted into increased acceptability of Narendra Modi within BJP’s fold. Gujrat Chief Minister also made most of the opportunity in his state, although his riot-stinted past refused to get off his back elsewhere. Outside Gujrat, it was the less charismatic ground level leaders who sustained the momentum for BJP. B. S. Yediurappa in Karnataka, Raman Singh in Chattisgarh, Shivraj Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh, Gopinath Munde in Maharashtra and such leaders in few other states would eventually pull the BJP tally close to the 2004 mark. Dominance of state politics is coming to the rescue of the saffron party, which has failed to set an appealing agenda at the national level. Thus, the saffron party will remain in the reckoning in the future despite its sulking image among the political pundits. This impression of declining force gains currency as a result of total ineffectiveness of BJP’s core agenda before the people. Its allies too are sailing with it due to state level advantages and would act as check on it in case it forms the government at the centre.
The overall posturing by the political parties during electioneering shows tilt towards rhetoric of Left to the Centre policies. While, Congress leadership harped upon its pro-poor projects like NREGA and accused the BJP-led NDA of being pro-rich, the later publicly admitted its folly of pitching the ‘India Shining’ campaign in 2004 general elections. BSP leader Ms. Mayawati also brought into focus the economic disparities in the country and blamed it for Congress rule since independence. She proudly claimed that her party does not run on the money received from rich industrialists but on the basis of donations collected by party workers throughout the country. She also promised to ensure reservation for economically deprived within the upper castes. BSP is making a robust effort countrywide to make Mayawati next Prime Minister on the plank of Dalit Ki Beti. The left parties as usual reiterated its commitment for pro-worker, pro-farmer economic policies while its allies in some of the states banked upon populist measures like cheap rice, free TV sets and cash transfer schemes. If words of the leaders from all political parties are taken seriously, the next government, no matter of which combination, should not make an attempt for further liberalization of country’s economy. The Left parties cobbled together alliances with regional players in few important states and pitted for emergence of strong Third Front in post-electoral scenario. The initial sarcasm about formation of Third Front soon converted into serious attacks on such possibilities by both the Congress and the BJP. Emergence of such possibility also created waves in UPA and NDA as the smaller parties looked for an opportunity to break free from their national partners.
Surprisingly, the volcanic developments in Pakistan found little mention and rabidly anti-Islamabad parties like BJP-Shiv Sena did not try to capitalize on the eminent danger to India from the potential resurgence of Taliban in the neighborhood. Is it a sign of Indian polity coming to an age vis-à-vis dealing with Pakistan and responding to threats emanating from it? Or is it an expose of the cluelessness of Indian political parties over unprecedented developments across the western border? On the other hand, the left campaign was aptly focused on its opposition to strategic ties with the United States, including the nuclear deal, wherein it tried to put the UPA government in the dock. The Congress, however, opted for silence over the issue. It did not champion the reasons and causes for entering into nuclear deal except Dr. Manmohan Singh’s reply to the Left in couple of meetings. Plight of Tamils in Sri Lanka has been the central issue in Tamil Nadu, where there were no contrasting opinions on it. Each of the political formations accused the other of shading false tears and promised to make efforts to ease the situation in northern Sri Lanka.
Apart from the agendas and issues that the parties tried to project at the national level, performance of respective state governments remained the focal point of campaigning in most of the states. It was obvious for the states of A.P. and Orissa, where assembly elections were held simultaneously. However, several other Chief Ministers, for example Nitish Kumar in Bihar, V. S. Achyutanandan in Kerala, Yediurappa in Karnataka and Bhoopinder Singh Hooda in Haryana also took the election as referendum on their respective government’s performance. In few states, the local issues and new leaders too dominated the campaign to the extent of influencing voters’ decision. Prominent among them are Raj Thackrey’s anti-north Indian stand, demands for separate Telangana and Gorakhaland, cine-star Chiranjivee’s political launching in A.P. are some of the prominent local matters emerged in the electioneering this season. Election results will reveal which of these factors dominate the mindset of Indian voters. The results can also throw up surprises and new trends as they have done for more than once in Indian politics.
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